Noisy probability judgment, the conjunction fallacy, and rationality: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014).
نویسندگان
چکیده
According to Costello and Watts (2014), probability theory can account for key findings in human judgment research provided that random noise is embedded in the model. We concur with a number of Costello and Watts's remarks, but challenge the empirical adequacy of their model in one of their key illustrations (the conjunction fallacy) on the basis of recent experimental findings. We also discuss how our argument bears on heuristic and rational thinking.
منابع مشابه
Theoretical note Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt to provide a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proved challenging. Here we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides, Osherson, Bonini, & Viale, 2002) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability ...
متن کاملA test of two models of probability judgment: quantum versus noisy probability
We test contrasting predictions of two recent models of probability judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyer et al., 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model (Costello and Watts, 2014). Both models assume that people estimate probability using formal processes that follow or subsume standard probability theory. The quantum probability model predicts people’s estimates should ...
متن کاملThe conjunction fallacy and interference effects
In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum formalism can be used to describe in a very simple way this fallacy in terms of interference effect. We evidence that the quantum formalism leads quite naturall...
متن کاملThe conjunction fallacy, confirmation, and quantum theory: comment on Tentori, Crupi, and Russo (2013).
The conjunction fallacy refers to situations when a person judges a conjunction to be more likely than one of the individual conjuncts, which is a violation of a key property of classical probability theory. Recently, quantum probability (QP) theory has been proposed as a coherent account of these and many other findings on probability judgment "errors" that violate classical probability rules,...
متن کاملSource Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy
Information generally comes from less than fully reliable sources. Rationality, it seems, requires that one take source reliability into account when reasoning on the basis of such information. Recently, Bovens and Hartmann (2003) proposed an account of the conjunction fallacy based on this idea. They show that, when statements in conjunction fallacy scenarios are perceived as coming from such ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Psychological review
دوره 123 1 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2016